Introduction: Turning Malthus on His Head
In Superabundance, Marian L. Tupy and Gale L. Pooley set out to do something radical: upend centuries of economic pessimism surrounding population growth and resource scarcity. From Thomas Malthus to modern environmental alarmists, the prevailing assumption has been that more people will inevitably stretch Earth’s resources too thin—resulting in famine, poverty, and ecological collapse.
Tupy and Pooley say: not so fast.
Using meticulous data and a refreshingly optimistic worldview, the authors argue that more people don’t consume wealth—they create it. Human ingenuity, when paired with freedom and open markets, makes our planet not just sustainable but increasingly bountiful. Hence the title: Superabundance.
The Core Idea: Time Prices and the Abundance Multiplier
At the heart of the book is the idea of “time prices”—a novel metric that measures the cost of goods in terms of the time it takes the average person to earn enough money to buy them.
For example, if it took 10 hours of work to buy a pound of sugar in 1900 and only 10 minutes today, sugar has become 60 times more abundant in time-price terms—even if the dollar cost has changed little.
This framework allows the authors to sidestep inflation distortions and capture a clearer picture of real-world abundance. Spoiler: it’s accelerating at a pace that most of us vastly underestimate.
Abundance Through Innovation
One of the book’s most powerful arguments is that innovation always outpaces depletion—especially when people are free to think, experiment, and trade. As populations grow, so do the number of inventors, scientists, entrepreneurs, and creative thinkers. This generates what the authors call the “infinite resource“: human ingenuity.
Examples abound:
- The price of aluminum fell by over 98% since the 1800s—not because we found more aluminum, but because we learned how to extract it more efficiently.
- Food production has skyrocketed even as farmland shrinks—thanks to innovations like the Green Revolution and modern fertilizers.
- Communication, transportation, and access to information have become dramatically cheaper, faster, and more universal.
Superabundance shows how, time and again, markets and innovation have turned presumed “limits” into springboards for progress.
The Simon–Ehrlich Wager Revisited
A major influence on the book is economist Julian Simon, who famously bet environmentalist Paul Ehrlich in 1980 that the prices of five key metals would fall over a decade—despite rising global population. Simon won decisively.
Tupy and Pooley not only revisit that bet but replicate it across a vast range of commodities and time frames. The result: a massive trove of empirical evidence showing that goods become cheaper and more abundant as human populations grow—not the other way around.
They even scale the analysis globally and find that between 1980 and 2018, the “time price” of 50 basic commodities fell by over 70%, while global population rose by 70%. This yields an “abundance multiplier” of over 3:1—each percentage of population growth produced 3% more abundance.
Debunking Scarcity Myths
The authors take direct aim at commonly held beliefs about scarcity:
- Oil and gas are not running out; extraction and efficiency technologies continue to evolve.
- Food crises are usually political, not agricultural.
- Water scarcity is solvable with pricing, infrastructure, and desalination.
- Biodiversity and climate concerns are real but solvable through innovation, not anti-human policies.
Tupy and Pooley don’t deny environmental issues—but they argue the solution is more human empowerment, not less.
The Morality of Abundance
Beyond charts and economics, Superabundance is a book about values. The authors argue that progress isn’t just about numbers—it’s about human flourishing.
More abundance means:
- Longer lifespans
- Higher literacy and education
- Lower child mortality
- Greater freedom and opportunity
And crucially, it means hope. In a world obsessed with doom, Superabundance offers a rare, well-reasoned case for rational optimism.
Freedom, Property, and Progress
One of the underlying themes is that abundance is not automatic. It depends on the right institutional environment: economic freedom, private property, rule of law, and individual rights. Where those things are suppressed, progress stalls. Where they flourish, so does prosperity.
In other words, abundance follows liberty.
Key Takeaways
- Human beings are not a burden—they are the ultimate resource.
- More people means more minds, more ideas, and faster progress.
- Scarcity is relative and often solved through innovation.
- Time prices are a powerful way to measure real-world abundance.
- Freedom and markets unleash the ingenuity needed to thrive.
- Optimism, rooted in data and human creativity, is not naïve—it’s rational.
Final Thoughts: A Book for a Hope-Starved Era
In an age of climate anxiety, economic fears, and cultural pessimism, Superabundance is a breath of fresh, empirical air. Tupy and Pooley don’t sugarcoat challenges—but they relentlessly highlight the facts, trends, and human potential that too often go ignored.
If you’re looking for a book that will change the way you think about population, economics, and the future, this is it.
